‘Viksit Bharat (VB)'

Role of Veterinarians & Livestock Sector for “Viksit Bharat@2047”

October 20, 2024

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Role of Veterinarians & Livestock Sector for “Viksit Bharat@2047”

How can India leverage its potential and implement effective strategies to become a developed nation by 2047? In his 2022 Independence Day speech, the Prime Minister (PM) outlined an ambitious vision for transforming the nation into a developed country by 2047—‘Viksit Bharat (VB)’. It aims to reshape India into a technologically advanced, economically strong and socially inclusive nation. This paper delves into the various aspects of VB, examining the critical strategies and policies required to achieve this transformation. It highlights significant progress in green energy, infrastructure development and socio-economic programmes and discusses the necessary reforms to achieve Viksit Bharat and a $30 trillion economy. The goal of achieving a $30 trillion economy by 2047 is a cornerstone of the VB vision, encompassing a broad vision for holistic development, renovating India into a prosperous, inclusive and sustainable nation. The study explores India’s unique opportunities in the context of its demographic dividend, technological advancements and socioeconomic initiatives.

India is at the turning point in history. It is poised to become a Viksit Bharat, a US$ 30 trillion economy with all the attributes of a developed nation by the century year of our independence 2047. To achieve this grand vision of developed India, every sector of the economy has to pace up their efforts with agriculture and livestock sector must not lag behind. Veterinarians are key partners in the VIKSIT BHARAT Sankalp Yatra and livestock sector is no exception. They have repeatedly shown that they are capable of handling any crisis with much grace and dignity. Livestock sector is emerging as one of the most important and rapidly growing component of Indian agri-food system, accounting 4.75% of national income and 30.47% of Agricultural GDP (BAHS, 2023). The Veterinarians are the key players in this sector, either as livestock handlers or as Livestock consultants. Vets make a significant contribution to public health, animal welfare and animal health in general.

Nations that have harnessed pivotal economic moments have historically achieved rapid growth. Japan, for example, underwent a remarkable transformation post-World War during the 1950s-60s, often referred to as the ‘Japanese Post-War Economic Miracle’, establishing itself as a leading global economy.Similarly, Germany’s Wirtschaftswunder (economic miracle) during the 1950s-70s transformed it into a robust economy with a strong manufacturing base and technological advancements. Singapore evolved from a developing nation to one of the richest between the 1960s-70s, also marked by technological transformation. South Korea, from the 1960s-90s, transitioned from an agrarian economy to a leading industrial nation, a period known as the Miracle on the Han River.

India now stands at a similar turning point fuelled by demographic advantages, technological advancements, urbanization and economic reforms, ready to leverage its potential for a significant leap forward. After the Lok Sabha election results, the Indian PM has taken office for the third time, leading the NDA, poised to see through their economic promises. The VB vision they champion is something citizens have heard for about two years now. But what does this VB mean for India? And why is the ruling party emphasising it so strongly? The past decade has highlighted India’s capacity for substantial transformation in sectors such as technology, healthcare, education, renewable energy and infrastructure. Sports initiatives like Khelo India have significantly improved India’s performance in international competitions.

The rapid establishment of ₹40cr Jan Dhan accounts has ensured widespread financial inclusion. India’s COVID-19 vaccination programme, supported by the COWIN platform, was the largest globally, showcasing India’s capabilities to harness digital technology for public health. The Chandrayaan Mission demonstrated India’s prowess in space technology, achieving significant scientific milestones with limited budgets. India has surpassed its Paris Agreement targets, harnessing 40% of its power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources of energy. India’s Digital Public Infrastructure, including the Aadhaar and UPI, has rapidly expanded, making India a leader in digital innovation. Infrastructure expansion, particularly in railways and highways, has significantly accelerated. India’s leadership in international forums like the G20 and the establishment of the International Solar Alliance reflect its rising global influence (Baruah, 2019). India is thus at a pivotal moment, poised for a transformative leap.

In his 2021 Independence Day address, the PM articulated his VB vision for Amrit Kaal and 2047, when India will mark its centenary of independence. He called upon the nation to seize new opportunities, achieve new resolutions and advance with assurance. Emphasising collective effort and teamwork, he underscored their importance for the nation’s progress. In her Union Budget 2022-23 speech, the Finance Minister outlined the government’s VB objectives for the Amrit Kaal (from India at 75 to India at 100).

These goals include: (1) integrating macroeconomic growth with microeconomic welfare initiatives; (2) promoting the digital economy, fintech,technology-driven development, energy transition and climate action; and (3) encouraging a virtuous cycle of private investment, supplemented by public capital investment (GOI, 2022a). The VB objectives thus aim for India to be a fully developed nation by 2047, marking 100 years of independence. The PM has stated that the core objective of the VB vision is to foster inclusive economic participation among all citizens. A crucial element of this initiative is the ambitious goal of making India the world’s third-largest economy within the next five years.

The VB vision outlines aspirations for economic growth, sustainable development, ease of living, ease of doing business improvements, enhanced infrastructure and strengthened social welfare initiatives. The vision also accounts for four significant international factors expected to dominate by 2050: (1) the rising prominence of India and Africa on the global stage; (2) reflecting PM Modi’s emphasis on the Global South at G20; (3) a world marked by growing affluence and polarisation; and (4) escalating climate crises; and a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Additionally, it considers the emergence of a ‘phygital’ future, where rapidly advancing digital technology reshapes the physical world to make human life easier, increase economic productivity and enhance overall efficiency (N. R. Singh, 2024).

The Union Budget for 2023-24, the inaugural budget of the Amrit Kaal (the 25-year period leading up to India’s 100th independence anniversary, aligned with the transformative goals of VB), envisioned India as a technology-driven and knowledge-based economy with robust public finances and a resilient financial sector. It reiterated that the principle of Jan Bhagidari (a Government initiative aimed at promoting public participation in development and decision-making processes) through Sabka Saath Sabka Prayas (Emphasises inclusive development by encouraging collective efforts and public participation in India’s growth initiatives) is vital (PIB, 2023a). By 2047, the VB vision aims to achieve: (1) a $30 trillion economy with a per-capita income of $18,000-$20,000, underpinned by strong public finances and a robust financial sector; (2) world-class infrastructure and amenities in both rural and urban areas; (3) minimising government interference in citizens’ lives while promoting the digital economy and governance; (4) developing global champions in various sectors through mergers or restructuring and fostering indigenous industry and innovation; (5) attaining self-reliance in defence and space sectors and enhancing India’s global role; (6) promoting green growth and climate action by expanding green energy capacity and reducing carbon emissions; (7) empowering youth with skills and education, creating more employment opportunities; (8) collaborating with international R&D organisations to establish top- tier laboratories in India and positioning at least ten Indian institutions among the global top 100.

India’s Amrit Kaal designed for VB signifies a period ripe for transformation, bolstered by extensive socio-economic infrastructure development. Initiatives such as Samagra Shiksha (Integrated program by the Indian government to ensure equitable and inclusive quality education from pre-primary to senior secondary levels), Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (Aimed at providing skill training and certification to enhance employability for India’s youth) and the expansion of universities and technical institutions have strengthened India’s educational framework. The healthcare sector has similarly seen massive improvements in terms of increased access and better quality of services, with over 160,000 Ayushman Bharat centres and extensive immunisation programmes significantly enhancing public health metrics. Rural India has witnessed remarkable progress, nearing universal coverage in essential services like electricity, drinking water, banking and mobile connectivity. Initiatives like Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (A government initiative providing free food grains to the poor to ensure food security during crises) and MGNREGA (An Indian government program that guarantees 100 days of wage employment per year to rural households for unskilled labour) have provided substantial support to people experiencing poverty, while housing schemes have aimed at providing homes for all (PIB, 2024b).

Moreover, India’s demographic dividend, with a youthful population and a median age of 29, presents an immense opportunity. With over 1.4 billion people and more than 40% below the age of 25, the demographic structure presents a substantial opportunity for economic growth. This young workforce, coupled with innovative government policies like Digital India and Startup India, has fostered a thriving startup ecosystem, positioning India as the world’s third-largest startup hub. Advancing with the PM’s VB vision to make India a developed country by 2047, the government is preparing an Action Plan and Vision Document, termed ‘India@2047’. This national vision plan aims to steer India clear of the middle-income trap that has ensnared several nations at similar stages of development. The middle-income trap is a situation where a country attains a certain income level but struggles to transition to high-income status due to rising costs and declining competitiveness.

These reforms will be crucial for transforming India into a $30 trillion economy by 2047, with a per capita income of $18,000-$20,000. The NITI Aayog is finalising the plan India@2047, which has been in development for nearly two years.

Further, India’s share of global GDP has increased from 1.1% in 1991 to 3.5% in 2023, making it the world’s fifth-largest economy (Inamdar, 2024). Despite this growth, none of the world’s largest banks, contractors, legal consultancies or accountancy firms are Indian. VB-driven India@2047 seeks to change this by pushing various sectors and companies to become global champions and by developing the skills needed by India’s young population to meet global demands. India is currently the world’s fifth-largest economy, with a GDP of $3.7 trillion and it is expected to surpass Japan and Germany by 2030. Rating agency S&P projects that India’s nominal GDP will increase from $3.4 trillion in 2022 to $7.3 trillion by 2030. By 2030, India’s GDP is forecast to exceed that of Germany, making it the second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region. Preliminary estimates from NITI Aayog suggest that in order to achieve the VB vision (Larrdis, 2023), India’s economy will need to grow at an annual average rate of 9.2% between 2030 and 2040 and 8.8% between 2040 and 2047.

As India approaches 2047, the vision for VB and its contextual background requires unwavering commitment, innovative thinking and strategic leadership. A transformative agenda is essential to propel India towards its goal of becoming a developed nation. This vision encourages the youth to contribute ideas and actively participate in nation-building, fostering a collaborative effort towards achieving a thriving and sustainable economy. The initiative invites youth across India to engage in the discourse on VB by contemplating how a developed India should look in 2047 across various dimensions and what actions are necessary to achieve these goals.

The focus, as defined based on the 2023-24 Budget plans, spans five key themes: empowered citizens, a thriving and sustainable economy, innovation, science and technology, good governance and security and India’s role on the global stage.

Agriculture

Numerous studies highlight the achievements of Indian agriculture following independence, particularly since 1970, with notable growth trajectories emerging, notably commencing in 2005-06. In order for India to attain the status of a developed nation by 2047, its per capita GNI must increase by approximately sixfold from its current levels (Damodaran, 2024). This necessitates substantial growth not only in per capita GNI but also in the incomes of the populace, ensuring a comprehensive approach to development. Thus, Enhancing farm incomes is of paramount importance, given that nearly 46% of the workforce is engaged in agriculture, characterised by small average holdings and a comparatively modest contribution to GDP (Gulati et al., 2024). The enhancement of farmer conditions and incomes is essential for fostering inclusive, sustainable development and realising the vision of VB. Here, we focus on the transformation occurring in India’s agricultural sector. The section begins with an overview of sustainable agricultural practices that are being adopted to ensure long-term productivity and environmental health. Technological innovations, such as precision farming, genetically modified crops and advanced irrigation techniques, are discussed in detail. We also examine the challenges faced by the agricultural sector, including climate change, land degradation and market access issues. The section concludes with a future outlook, highlighting the potential for growth and the strategies required to achieve sustainable agricultural development.

Agriculture-inclusive development

Looking towards the forthcoming 23 years leading to India’s centennial independence, referred to as Amrit Kaal, strategic planning, forecasts and policy formulation pertaining to agriculture should take into account several factors: anticipated future demand for agricultural products; insights derived from past experiences, particularly concerning growth catalysts; existing challenges and emerging issues within the agricultural sector; potential opportunities and shifts in the agricultural operational landscape; societal and national needs and objectives.

According to projections by the United Nations, India’s population is anticipated to ascend from 1.38 billion in 2020 to 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.59 billion in 2040, with annual growth rates of 0.857% and 0.577%, respectively (UN, 2019). Addressing the food requirements of this expanding population is imperative, as is augmenting per capita food consumption to combat hunger and malnutrition. The growth in per capita income influences demand, with an estimated expenditure elasticity of food pegged at 0.45, exhibiting a declining trend as per capita income rises. India’s real per capita income witnessed a 41% increase from 2011-12 to 2021-22 and is projected to accelerate further.

Consequently, the expenditure elasticity post-2023 is anticipated to be lower than 0.45. A 5% upsurge in per capita expenditure correlates roughly to a 2% growth in demand. Coupled with a 0.85% annual population growth, the short-term food demand is estimated at approximately 2.85%, with a likelihood of tapering over time (Chand & Singh, 2023). Addressing the food requirements of this expanding population is imperative, as is augmenting per capita food consumption to combat hunger and malnutrition.

Farmer prosperity and sustainable agricultural growth

The primary objective of the Indian government, in line with its vision for 2047, is to augment farmers’ income, reduce farming costs and provide them with modern amenities spanning from seed procurement to market accessibility. Numerous initiatives have been rolled out to address the projected demands of both the population and agricultural producers. One such initiative is the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi, launched in 2019, which disburses ₹6,000 annually to farmers in three equal instalments (Akhtar, 2022). This nationwide scheme hailed as the first of its kind, has already benefited over 11.8 crore farmers. Another vital programme, the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana, introduced in 2016, provides financial assistance to farmers facing crop losses or damages (PIB, 2024d). With 49.5 crore farmers enrolled, the scheme has witnessed over 14.9 crore applicants receiving claims totalling more than ₹1.45 lakh crore in the past seven years. Notably, 84% of the enrolled farmers belong to the small and marginal categories. Crop insurance has experienced a significant upsurge, with a 3.19-fold increase in applications, a 7.2-fold increase in the participation of non- loanee farmers and a 2.36 fold increase in the average insured sum per hectare. Electronic National Agriculture Market, launched in 2016, aims to integrate existing markets through an electronic platform. As of September 2023, 1361 mandis have been integrated, with 1.76 million farmers registered and trade valued at ₹2.88 lakh crore recorded. Furthermore, MSPs for rice and wheat have witnessed substantial growth, rising from ₹1310 and 1400 per quintal in 2013-14 to ₹2183 and 2275 per quintal in 2023-24, respectively, marking an increase of 67% and 62.5%, respectively (PIB, 2022a). Launched in 2014-15, the SHC scheme aims to optimise the utilisation of soil nutrients, thereby enhancing agricultural productivity. Over 23 crore Soil Health Cards have been distributed to farmers nationwide (Shah, 2023), offering crucial insights and recommendations on soil health and nutrient management practices. This empowers farmers to make informed decisions regarding fertilisation and crop management strategies. Recognising the vital role of coarse grains in providing nutritious food and stimulating both domestic and international demand, the Government of India championed the 2023 declaration of the International Year of Millets at the United Nations General Assembly. India’s proposal garnered support from 72 countries, leading to the United Nations officially designated 2023 as the International Year of Millets as early as March 2021 (PIB, 2021). The KCC scheme has been extended to cover all PM-KISAN beneficiaries through a dedicated initiative. As of March 31, 2023, a significant 7.34 crore KCC applications have been sanctioned, with a sanctioned credit limit totalling ₹8.85 lakh crore. Further, The PMKSY aims to improve water use efficiency at the farm level, primarily through the adoption of drip and sprinkler irrigation systems. Since its inception in 2015-16, the scheme has successfully covered 78 lakh hectares. Additionally, a Micro Irrigation Fund of ₹5,000 crore has been established in collaboration with NABARD. Notably, a substantial allocation of ₹93,068 crore has been earmarked for the PMKSY for the period 2021- 26.

The Survey of Villages and Mapping with Improvised Technology in Village Areas initiative, launched in April 2020, aims to ensure transparent ownership of property in rural areas. Over 1.6 crore property cards have been generated under this scheme. By September 2023, Property Cards Title Deeds had been issued in more than 97,200 villages and drone surveys had been conducted in 2.81 lakh villages. The Agriculture Infrastructure Fund, a financing facility amounting to ₹1 lakh crore, is dedicated to the development and modernisation of post-harvest management infrastructure and community farming assets. Remarkably, within just under three years of its implementation, the scheme has sanctioned over 38,326 projects, mobilising ₹30,030 crores in the agriculture infrastructure sector. These projects have facilitated a total loan worth ₹50,988 crore (PIB, 2023g).

Completed agricultural infrastructure endeavours have not only created employment opportunities for more than 5.8 lakh individuals but have also contributed to saving 3.7 LMT of food grains and 46.3 LMT of horticulture produce annually. Moreover, they have ensured better price realisation for farmers, improving their income by 20-25%.In a significant development, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved the “PM Programme for Restoration, Awareness Generation, Nourishment and Amelioration of Mother-Earth” in its meeting held on June 28, 2023. This initiative aims to bolster the ongoing mass movement led by states to preserve the health of the earth by advocating for sustainable and balanced fertiliser usage, promoting organic farming practices and implementing resource conservation technologies.

India’s food demand and agricultural needs

Overall, the food demand is anticipated to increase at an annual rate of 2.44% from 2019-20 to 2047-48. The demand for food encompasses household consumption, food consumed outside the home, feed, seed, wastage and other utilisations. This growth trajectory is poised to accelerate to a range of 2.69% to 3.07% if the economy experiences a swifter pace of growth. However, the growth rates are projected to vary among different food commodities, ranging from 0.34% for rice to 5.42% for meat (NITI, 2024).

Demand for food grains

Source: NITI (2024)

The total demand for food grains in 2030-31 is estimated to lie between 326 to 334 million tonnes and in 2047-48, it is projected to range from 402 to 437 million tonnes. Under the BAU scenario, the anticipated production exceeds demand by 10- 13% (34-42 million tonnes) in 2030-31 and by 5-14% (22-55 million tonnes) in 2047-48 (Mukherjee, 2024). On the other hand, HYG scenarios exhibit greater trajectories (see Table ).

Production trajectories

Category	Projected Demand in 2047-48
Total Foodgrain Demand	BAU scenario: 402 million tonnes
	HIG scenarios: 415-437 million tonnes
Growth in Demand for Specific Items	Maise, pulses and nutri-cereals are expected to experience significantly higher growth compared to rice and wheat.
Pulses	Pulses demand is estimated to range between 49-57 million tonnes in 2047-48 under various income growth scenarios.
Vegetables and Fruits	BAU scenario projects 365 million tonnes of vegetables and 233 million tonnes of fruit demand in 2047-48.

	HIG scenarios anticipate 385-417 million tonnes of vegetables and 252-283 million tonnes of fruit demand in the same period.
Sugar and Products	Sugar and related products are expected to maintain demand levels at 44-45 million tonnes in 2047-48.
Edible Oils	The demand for edible oils is projected to be in the range of 31-33 million tonnes.
Milk and Milk Products	BAU scenario expects a demand of 480 million tonnes of milk and milk products in 2047-48.
	HIG scenarios suggest a higher demand range of 527- 606 million tonnes for the same period.
Eggs, Meat and Fish	Under the BAU scenario, demand is projected to be 16 million tonnes for eggs, 21 million tonnes for meat and 37 million tonnes for fish in 2047-48.
	HIG scenarios predict a higher demand range of 18-21 million tonnes for eggs, 24-29 million tonnes for meat and 41-48 million tonnes for fish.

Source: NITI (2024)

Table captures the anticipated food intake alignment with normative requirements, growth in the gross cropped area and the potential for surplus food grain production by 2047-48.

Anticipated food intakes

Year	Key Projections and Expectations
2030-31	Average daily food intake aligns with normative requirements
	Pulses, fruits and vegetables may fall short of recommended consumption levels.
2047-48	Average daily food intake surpasses normative requirements by 20%
	All food categories meet or surpass recommended intake levels.

2019-20	Beginning period for projected trends
2019-20 2047-48	Gross Cropped Area grows at an annual rate of 0.45%
	Growth primarily due to enhancements in cropping intensity
	Fulfilment of domestic demand hinges on yield augmentation rather than acreage expansion
2047-48	Both BAU and HYG scenarios project a surplus in food grain production, surpassing demand and enabling potential exports.
	Rice and wheat are pivotal in generating surplus.
	Demand for nutri-cereals may outpace production unless cultivation areas are expanded and yields improved.

Source: Multiple (Alae-Carew et al., 2019; DAFW, 2023; GTBharat, 2024)

Under the BAU scenario, maize production is forecasted to fall short of meeting demand, highlighting the necessity to optimise maize yield potential. Conversely, the HYG scenario anticipates maize production meeting demand, underscoring the importance of maximising yield. Pulses production is expected to be insufficient to meet demand in both scenarios, with self-sufficiency potentially achievable if current trends in expanding cultivation areas and enhancing yields persist (Mukherjee, 2024).

Currently, there exists a deficit in the production of fruits, vegetables and edible oils compared to demand, a situation likely to persist until there’s a notable increase in yield growth. Shortages in edible oils may endure temporarily, but augmenting oilseed yields and tapping into secondary sources can help alleviate the gap in the short term and achieve self-sufficiency in the long run. Conversely, sugar production is projected to surpass demand. Domestic production is anticipated to meet the demand for animal-source foods, excluding meat, under normal economic conditions. However, in the event of faster-than-usual economic growth, there may be a shortfall in meeting the demand for these foods (see Table 8). Moreover, the projected demand for agricultural inputs further complicates the situation.

Shortfalls in meeting demand (faster-than-usual growth scenario)

Input	2030-31 Demand (thousand tonnes/quintals)	2047-48 Demand (thousand tonnes/quintals)	Remarks
Fertilisers	339 – 396 lakh tonnes	432 – 640 lakh tonnes	Dependent on government initiatives and influencing factors
Pesticides	68,062 – 79,233 tonnes	83,209 – 1,18,405 tonnes	Dependent on cotton-growing area
Seeds	34,068 – 78,571 thousand quintals	49,701 – 92,335 thousand quintals	Dependent on seed replacement rates
Credit	₹42,60,769 crores	₹1,31,51,319 crores	Long-term credit demand is expected to increase

Source: Pareek (2024).

Recent budget (2024-25)

In the Interim Budget for the fiscal year 2024-25, the Finance Minister reiterated the government’s steadfast commitment to the welfare of farmers, ensuring food security. Notably, it was underscored that the successful integration of 1361 mandis into the Electronic National Agriculture Market has benefitted approximately 1.8 crore farmers, with a trading volume totalling 3 lakh crore. Furthermore, a slew of initiatives have been introduced to augment value addition in the agricultural sector and elevate farmers’ income. These encompass fostering both private and public investment in post-harvest activities such as aggregation, modern storage, efficient supply chains and marketing and branding. Additionally, the expansion of the Nano-DAP (which aims to streamline the distribution of fertiliser subsidies directly to farmers’ bank accounts—can potentially improve farmers’ incomes by reducing delays and leakages in subsidy disbursement, ensuring they receive the benefits in a timely and transparent manner. By cutting down on middlemen and administrative inefficiencies, Nano-DAP could help farmers access fertilisers more affordably and efficiently, thereby supporting their agricultural productivity and income levels) application across all agro-climatic zones has been prioritised. In pursuit of self-reliance in oilseeds production, a strategic framework named the Atmanirbhar Oilseeds Abhiyaan will be formulated, with a focus on crops like mustard, groundnut, sesame, soybean and sunflower. Additionally, a comprehensive programme for dairy development will be devised, leveraging the successes of existing schemes such as the Rashtriya Gokul Mission, National

Livestock Mission and infrastructure development funds for dairy processing and animal husbandry. Furthermore, efforts to bolster aquaculture productivity and double exports will be intensified through the implementation of the Pradhan Mantri Matsaya Sampada Yojana (Mishra, 2024), aimed at generating more employment opportunities. As part of this initiative, the establishment of five Integrated Aquaparks is on the agenda. The corporate sector has hailed the positive measures introduced for the agricultural domain. Experts within the industry have commended the government’s initiatives, highlighting several pivotal points. They particularly praise the introduction of the forward-thinking ‘Atmanirbhar Oil Seeds Abhiyan’, which prioritises essential oilseeds such as mustard, groundnut, sesame, soybean and sunflower (Biswas, 2024). This initiative encompasses various critical aspects, including research into high-yield varieties, widespread adoption of modern farming techniques, establishment of market linkages, procurement, value addition and crop insurance.

Moreover, they applaud the comprehensive programme supporting dairy and fisheries farmers, viewing it as a holistic commitment to enhancing the overall agricultural sector and ensuring the well-being of farming communities. The budget is lauded for its consistent support for agricultural growth and productivity, with interventions in crop insurance, encouragement of nano fertilisers, promotion of oilseed self-sufficiency and increased investments in microfood processing. The government’s persistent support for farmers under the crop insurance facility, with plans for further strengthening, is seen as a positive step towards enhancing penetration and awareness of insurance in rural India, thereby providing a boost to the insurance industry. The allocation of ₹20 lakh crore for targeted agricultural credit and the launch of the Agriculture Accelerator Fund have also garnered high praise.

There is a palpable sense of enthusiasm in the seed industry regarding the emphasis placed on oilseeds and the imperative to achieve self-reliance in this area in the Interim Budget. Lastly, the importance of digital infrastructure and the infusion of technology is underscored as crucial not only to sustain current momentum but also to realize the full potential of agricultural growth.

We have discussed paths to promote sustainable agriculture and innovation in driving India’s growth. VB is an ambitious project initiated by NITI Aayog, India’s premier policy think tank, to transform the nation into a developed economy by 2047, marking the centenary of its independence. The primary goal of VB is to elevate India’s economy to $30 trillion, with a per capita income between $18,000 and $20,000. This vision includes robust public finances and a strong financial sector, which are essential for sustainable growth. A significant focus is on building world-class infrastructure in both rural and urban areas, thereby enhancing the quality of life across the country. This vision aims to position India as a global leader in innovation and technology, a model of human development and social welfare and a champion of environmental sustainability. The project also aims to reduce unnecessary governmental interference, promoting a digital economy and governance system that is efficient and transparent. The project’s objectives are vast, ranging from economic growth to social development and environmental stewardship.

Way Forward: New Deal for Agriculture

Diversification away from Crops towards High-Value Commodities: We have seen that the contribution of livestock sector in total income of the agricultural households has increased from 4% to 16% between 2002-03 and 2018-19. The poultry sector has seen a remarkable transformation from a mere backyard activity to a fully integrated and commercial industry, primarily led by private The introduction of institutional innovations such as contract farming and vertical integration of farm operations have helped the poultry industry become one of the fastest-growing sectors in India. Next, the fisheries sector contributed approximately 15.2% to India’s agricultural exports in 2022-23, and became a substantial source of income for fishing families. Even horticulture is growing at much faster pace than cereals. Innovative production techniques, such as under controlled environment in polyhouses equipped with fertigation can augment productivity and incomes of farmers, while saving on water and fertilizers.These findings suggest that the potential for increasing farmers’ incomes lies primarily in animal husbandry and pisciculture. It is noteworthy that there is no MSP for animal husbandry or fisheries products, and the government does not engage in procurement. The market for these products is demand-driven, and most of their marketing occurs outside of the Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) mandis. This trend is expected to strengthen in the future as incomes of consumers rise and dietary preferences diversify. Encouraging private sector investment in building efficient value chains through a cluster-based approach can be an effective investment strategy. The 27% increase in allocation 2024-25 (BE) over last year’s revised estimate for the Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying, this may allow it to allocate a special package for farmers of Punjab- Haryana which will encourage them to shift away from paddy.
Improved Market Access: Small producers, who constitute 86% of agricultural households, dominate agriculture and allied sectors and they contribute significantly to farm output and However, they face market challenges typical to small size holdings. They have to contend with limited bargaining power, inadequate storage facilities, and the perishable nature of their agricultural produce. The following marketing channels can help farmers reap better returns.

Contract Farming: Since farmers may not always be able to access markets, they can rely on contract farming arrangements with business . These arrangements can facilitate a direct link between the market and primary producers. They assure pre-determined market demand, thereby mitigating price and production risks and uncertainties in the market, helping smallholders navigate imperfections of markets and their own asset limitations. This insulation from risk not only benefits farmers but also fosters the introduction of innovative farming techniques and skills. Contract farming arrangements for different types of crops like sugarcane, cotton, vegetables, coffee, and tea are already in use in many parts of the country. The benefits that accrue from these contracts to farmers also include inputs, credit facilities, insurance, and cold chain infrastructure. Studies have also found that farmers returns have been higher in contract farming (Gulati et al., 2019; Das, 2022).
Farmers’ Producers Organizations(FPOs): A well-functioning FPO enhances market access for its members by improving their bargaining power, enhancing their productivity, increasing incomes, and ultimately mitigating rural In a bid to promote FPOs, the Government has introduced a Central Sector Scheme, with the objective of establishing 10,000 new FPOs by 2027-28. By June 30, 2023, a total of 10,000 FPOs had been allocated to various Implementing Agencies (IAs), 6,319 FPOs had been successfully registered across the country (PIB, 2023). Based on SAS 2018-19 data, it was estimated that the monthly income from cultivation of member farmers was Rs. 4,808 as against Rs. 2,978 earned by non-members in 2018-19 .It requires more effort from the government to bring more farmers under producer organizations to increase their bargaining power which will fetch better returns and augment their incomes.

The Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) initiative led by the government aims to establish open networks for e- commerce in goods and services, fostering transparency, inclusivity,and innovation. ONDC seeks to streamline existing e-commerce processes, reduce the barriers to entry for small businesses, and promote fair competition. In the agriculture sector, ONDC can bring transformative changes by providing farmers direct access to digital marketplaces, eliminating intermediaries, ensuring fairer prices for agricultural produce, and enhancing competitiveness for FPOs. This facilitates equal visibility to potential buyers across India, expanding market reach and profitability. Additionally, small traders, farmers, and sellers can participate on an equal footing with larger players, promoting inclusivity and fair competition while accelerating transactions, and reducing time and resource wastage.
Futures Market in Agriculture: Farmers in India encounter both price and production risks due to significant uncertainties in market At the time of sowing, farmers lack visibility into the prices their produce will command post-harvest or the yield levels they can expect, leading to considerable uncertainty. In the absence of this information, they often base their sowing decisions on the previous year’s price realizations, resulting in a cycle of boom and bust (typical cobweb problem). It is imperative, therefore, that cropping patterns and sowing decisions adopt a forward-looking approach rather than relying solely on historical data. India initiated futures trading in agricultural commodities more than two decades ago (in 2003), but momentum was lost due to poor policy choices made by successive governments, especially from 2012 onwards, when futures trading was frequently disrupted by suspensions and bans. These need to be revived with liberal policy framework.

Liberalise Trade Policy: Indian farmersoften lose out on opportunities for higher earnings presented by high international prices for their produce due to policies aimed at preventing In times of high domestic prices, imports are incentivised for lowering prices that result in lower earnings for Indian farmers. To provide a level playing field for Indian farmers, the government should remove all curbs on selling farm produce. The most prudent policy would be liberalising the trade policy, especially on exports side so that farmers can benefit from access to lucrative foreign markets. In contrast, what the government has done recently is to ban wheat and rice exports and restricted sugar exports. Such abrupt export bans and restrictions, adversely impact farmers’ prices and incomes. Rather than an outright export ban, a better solution would be to filter exports through a gradual process of minimum export prices and transparent export duties for shorter durations, if that is needed at all to protect the consumers from rising food prices (Gulati, 2022). Similar ad- hoc restrictions on the domestic front such as invoking the Essential Commodities Act (ECA), and imposing stocking limits on pulses, create an environment of uncertainty that not only dampens trade sentiments but may also harm farmers’ interest in cultivating that crop in the long run. This ECA of 1955, when India was in the grip of food shortages, needs to be repealed to create a unified national market for farmers.
Incentivising workforce away from agriculture: A positive indicator of structural transformation is the shift in employment away from the low- subsistence agricultural However, sometimes, there could be a “push factor” too—since agriculture cannot sustain the workforce, job- seekers are pushed to take up any work that can give them subsistence earnings. Structural change in India is peculiar. Almost 45.8% of the working population living on only 18% of GDP cannot make them prosperous. Quite a substantial part (about 15%) of labour force needs to move out of agriculture. But how to incentivise this exit? One possible way is to link MGNREGA with development schemes of the government such as PM Awas Yojana, Nal se Jal, Swachh Bharat Mission, and Gramin Sadak Yojana for building rural infrastructure such as housing, drinking water, sanitation and rural roads at a higher pace. They can also be used for constructing agri-markets, value chains and storage facilities. Also, MGNREGA employment can be linked with environmentally sustainable activities such as groundwater recharge, soil protection, green cover, water and biodiversity conservation, sustainable food production, and mitigation of land degradation etc. This will create remunerative and labour intensive employment opportunities outside agriculture. Gujarat has created history in water conservation, by launching a drive for the blue revolution and constructing several check-dams, boribunds and Khet Talavadi (farm ponds) using MGNREGA labour and NGO cooperation. Investment in skill formation for new India can also play a pivotal role in a country’s structural transformation.
Augmenting Total Factor Productivity in Agriculture (TFP): TFP in agriculture is a holistic measure of a sector’s growth, defied as the share of output increase with the same amount of inputs such as fertilisers, land, labour, capital, or material resources employed in production. TFP captures the effects of technological change, skills, or infrastructure, as well as the increase in efficiency with which inputs are utilized in production (USDA, 2018) (OECD/ICRIER, 2018). It is calculated as the ratio of total agricultural output to total production A higher ratio implies that resources are being used efficiently (IFPRI, 2018). USDA estimates indicate that agricultural TFP in India increased at an average annual growth of 2.2% during 2000-21 (USDA). Investments in infrastructure, R&D and extension services are important indicators of sustainable agricultural growth (Global Harvest Initiative, 2014). In the interim Union budget 2024-25, out of the total budget expenditure of Rs.47.6 lakh crores, the Centre has budgeted Rs. 5.5 lakh crores for welfare/subsidy schemes (including food subsidy, fertiliser subsidy, MGNREGA, PM Kisan, Fasal Bima Yojana, and Interest Subvention). At least 30% of this can be easily rationalised by making food subsidies targeted to only the most vulnerable (Antyodaya) and by direct transfer of food and fertilizer subsidies to relevant beneficiaries, and freeing up fertiliser prices.